Volume 4, Issue 5, October 2015, Page: 115-131
Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in Kenya: 2005-2012
Manaseh Otieno Oiro, Trade and Foreign Policy Division, Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, Nairobi, Kenya
Received: Sep. 3, 2015;       Accepted: Sep. 24, 2015;       Published: Oct. 19, 2015
DOI: 10.11648/j.jwer.20150405.12      View  4882      Downloads  288
Abstract
The real exchange rate has proven to be an important factor in international trade because it is expected that exports react to real exchange rate movements with respect to the characteristics of the importing and exporting countries. Exchange rate volatility increases uncertainty of profits on contracts denominated in foreign currency and subsequently dampens trade and economic growth. This study investigated how real exchange rate volatility affected exports of key Kenyan commodities to the European Union and United Kingdom, namely; tea, coffee and horticulture to the European Union. The presence of exchange rate volatility was determined using the GARCH model. A Bounds testing and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used to establish the presence of a long run relationship between exchange rate volatility and commodity exports. Findings revealed that exchange rate volatility affected tea exports to the UK and horticulture exports to the European Union. Foreign income played an important role in explaining tea and coffee exports to the UK and EU respectively. It is recommended that greater value addition be done to tea and coffee exports to ensure that their demand increases with increase in foreign incomes.
Keywords
Trade Liberalization, Volatility, Exports
To cite this article
Manaseh Otieno Oiro, Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports in Kenya: 2005-2012, Journal of World Economic Research. Vol. 4, No. 5, 2015, pp. 115-131. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20150405.12
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